Saturday, June 20, 2015

A Slightly Statistical View Of The Relationship Between Domestic Players And International Success

England and Italy are two of the most lack luster international teams to watch during the world cup or the Euro's. Of course there are worse teams, but these two are regarded as two of the biggest teams in the world, especially with a host of star players in their ranks. So why have they continually under performed and failed to excite in recent times? 

Some might argue that Italy had won the world cup in 2006. But if one looked at that world cup closely, one would realize that Italy were not particularly rampant during that world cup and could have gone out against Australia in the round of 16 if it wasn't for a dubious penalty decision in stoppage time that propelled them into the quarters. Their most impressive performance was against Germany in the semis where they beat the hosts 2-0 in arguably the best game of the tournament. France were clearly the best team during that tournament and were unfortunate to lose the final against Italy on penalties following a Zidane red card. 

England's last decent tournament run was back in 2002 during the Korea/Japan world cup. They showed great promise with players such as Michael Owen, David Beckham, Sol Campbell, Rio Ferdinand, Paul Scholes and David Seamann at the peak of their careers. However, their run ended against the eventual and deserved winners, Brazil, in the quarters. 


Rio Ferdinand and Sol Campbell for England during the 2002 world cup


If we fast forward to the last 5 years or so, we have witnessed some abysmal performances from Italy and England. There is a trend that seems to be synonymous with their poor displays. Almost every player in the Italian or English squad seems to play in their own leagues. In fact, in the 2010 world cup, every player in the England squad played club football in England and the same goes for Italy. At first it would seem that playing in the same league would build a strong chemistry between the players. To the contrary, a team that has players from different top leagues have a higher success rate. 


Inzaghi (left), Maldini (center) and Gattuso (right) of Italy celebrating the Coppa Italia win for Milan

There are definitely some exceptions to that rule with Germany and Spain vastly containing players from their respective leagues as well. However, Germany and Spain have had the occasional player play in different leagues. Also, in Italy's and England's defense, their leagues are two of the best leagues in Europe along with Spain and Germany so one would not necessarily need to leave their own country to experience a great level of football. 

Let's take a look at the 2014 world cup. 39 % of Spain's squad played in a different league. For Germany, that number is 30 %. For England and Italy, the numbers are 4 % and 13 % respectively. Notice that all these percentages have increased from 2010 but the English and Italian trends have not increased at the same rate as that of Germany and Spain. 


English players Ashley Cole (left), Lampard (center) and Terry (right) for Chelsea


It is hard to explain the phenomena but the trend clearly supports the performances in recent times. One important point that comes to mind is that if you have all players from a country playing in the same league, it is highly probable that the players are distributed among the good teams and the not so good teams. But if your players are from different leagues, its possible that they play in the top teams in each league since international selection would favor the best players in club football and the best players usually play in top clubs. 

At the climax of the 2010 European club season, Inter, Roma, Milan and Sampdoria comprised the top four in Italy. Chelsea, United, Arsenal and Spurs comprised the top four in England. 30 % of the Italian squad for the 2010 world cup played for Champions League teams in Europe which includes 4 players from the aforementioned clubs and 3 from PSG in France. For England, that statistic is 35 %. The numbers are fairly shocking if compared with numbers from Spain or Germany. 

The top four in Germany were Bayern, Bremen, Schalke and Leverkusen. 65 % of their squad played in top four teams around Europe, including Arsenal, Real Madrid and Chelsea. That number increases to 82 % if we include Dortmund who finished in 5th place and contained several important players for Germany. In Spain, the top four were Real Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia and Sevilla. Statistics show that 70 % of their players played in top four teams across Europe out of which 10 players played just for Real and Barca. If 5th place Athletico Madrid and Man City are included, the percentage goes up to a staggering 91 %. Therfore, it is highly likely that the starting 11 contains players from only top four clubs. 


David Silva celebrates a goal for Manchester City


Mesut Ozil of Germany featuring for Arsenal

Having looked at these statistics, we can better connect the dots to explain the poor performances to majority of players playing in their domestic leagues. The trend may change in the future but for now, it seems like having a great mix of international talent at top clubs would allow top domestic players to head to top clubs in other leagues. Very few Italian and English players make their trade in other countries which could prove to be the key to international success. With the emergence of new European top contenders such as PSG, Dortmund, Athletico and Manchester City, players from a certain league have more opportunity to move abroad and continue to play at a high level. Whether, that will improve the fate of England and Italy in major competitions, only time will tell.